Betting and Odds LabOdds, implied-probability, settlement, and calibration processor

KELLY sector cognition OS

Probability bench

Compare market-implied probability, KELLY's evidence posture, reality settlement, and calibration without letting public users write ground truth.

KELLY separates market price, evidence, causal pressure, settlement, and calibration so a forecast can be replayed instead of hand-waved.

Postgrescentral spineUse canonical KELLY Neon/Postgres for odds_observations, implied_probability_history, divergence_cards, settlement_receipts, calibration_scores, and replay state.
Evidence shelfimmutable artifactsUse R2/object storage for immutable odds snapshots, source packets, settlement bundles, and calibration/replay receipts.
VolumeNo ground-truth volumeNo independent source-of-truth volume. A local cache is allowed only for rebuildable odds/history acceleration.
Ask in this labWindow JSONLive pulseGlass proof
live processor windowpublic writes off
01lineRead approved odds, schedule, injury/news, market, and settlement sources without treating prices as truth.
02implySeparate market-implied probability, KELLY evidence posture, causal pressure, uncertainty, and line movement.
03settleEmit divergence cards, closing-line watches, settlement receipts, calibration deltas, and replay packets.
04calibrateRoute closed outcomes through Brier/calibration scoring and memory-lineage review before durable learning.

Objects on the bench

market_lineimplied_probabilitykelly_probabilitysettled_outcome

Required receipts

line_receiptsource_receiptsettlement_receiptcalibration_receipt

Live KELLY routes

  • Glass Lab live snapshothttps://www.causalea.com/api/glass-lab/live-snapshot
  • Public proof maphttps://www.causalea.com/api/public-proof-map
  • Causal healthhttps://www.causalea.com/api/runtime/causal-health

Probability bench

Odds Lab

Compare market-implied probability, KELLY's evidence posture, reality settlement, and calibration without letting public users write ground truth.

KELLY separates market price, evidence, causal pressure, settlement, and calibration so a forecast can be replayed instead of hand-waved.

Ask KELLY in this labOpen proof shelfWindow JSON
24 hours

24-hour line movement proof

Which monitored odds line is most likely to move materially before close?

Proof
7-30 days

Market-vs-KELLY divergence

Where does public market belief diverge most from KELLY's evidence chain?

Proof
season / long arc

Calibration edge watch

Does KELLY stay better calibrated than market confidence over repeated settlements?

Proof
What KELLY is doing

This window shows what KELLY is doing in Odds Lab: what it is reading, what it thinks might matter, what proof exists, and what is still waiting.

How to audit it

Read the answer in this lab first. Open the proof shelf or JSON packet for the evidence behind it. Check the route status and last-checked timestamp before trusting freshness. Look for the mind-changer: the fact that would make KELLY revise the answer. If evidence is waiting, treat the output as a question or watch item, not a settled answer.

Evidence status

Live evidence appears only when KELLY exposes proof-linked sector output. Empty states are intentional waiting states, not filler.

What changes KELLY's mind

New approved evidence, a falsifier, settlement, replay drift, calibration movement, or memory-lineage revision.

What this window cannot do

This lab communicates with KELLY as an inspection window. It cannot write ground truth, memory, GraphState, provider state, or reality receipts.

Processing flow

Prices, evidence, and settlement stay separate

01Read approved odds, schedule, injury/news, market, and settlement sources without treating prices as truth.line
02Separate market-implied probability, KELLY evidence posture, causal pressure, uncertainty, and line movement.imply
03Emit divergence cards, closing-line watches, settlement receipts, calibration deltas, and replay packets.settle
04Route closed outcomes through Brier/calibration scoring and memory-lineage review before durable learning.calibrate

Ask KELLY here

Ask about a market probability

Ask contract

This window is a probability and proof interface only. It is not betting, gambling, financial, or investment advice.

ready

KELLY answer lane

Ask about source posture, proof, falsifiers, forecast movement, settlement, calibration, or memory eligibility. The answer stays inside this lab and links back to Glass Lab where available.

Probability evidence

Lines, implied probability, KELLY divergence, and calibration

connecting

Checking KELLY proof surfaces

This lab renders live proof-linked items when KELLY exposes matching sector evidence.

proof routeswaiting for first check

Sources

Probability inputs

  • The Odds API
  • official league schedules and results
  • settlement feeds
  • KELLY replay receipts
  • calibration history

Proof standard

How users can tell

  • Market odds and KELLY forecast stay separate.
  • Every settled outcome needs a source receipt.
  • Calibration matters more than confident language.
  • Public users inspect and ask; they do not write ground truth.

Outputs

Odds outputs

  • implied_probability_cards
  • market_kelly_divergence_receipts
  • closing_line_watch
  • settlement_receipts
  • calibration_replay_packets

Storage posture

Postgres: central KELLY spine

Use canonical KELLY Neon/Postgres for odds_observations, implied_probability_history, divergence_cards, settlement_receipts, calibration_scores, and replay state.

Object storage

Immutable evidence shelf

Use R2/object storage for immutable odds snapshots, source packets, settlement bundles, and calibration/replay receipts.

Volume

No ground-truth volume

No independent source-of-truth volume. A local cache is allowed only for rebuildable odds/history acceleration.

Objects on the bench

Primary objects

  • market_line
  • implied_probability
  • kelly_probability
  • settled_outcome

Required receipts

Black-box recorder

  • line_receipt
  • source_receipt
  • settlement_receipt
  • calibration_receipt

Authority

Write boundary

  • KELLY is the only write authority for durable learning.
  • Labs are read-only processors and inspection windows.
  • Glass Lab remains the traceable evidence console.
This is not betting, gambling, financial, or investment advice. It is a read-only probability and proof interface. Public users can ask, inspect, export local viewport data where supported, and follow proof links. They cannot edit KELLY Prime ground truth from this app.