Source
Approved data feed, document, event, price, weather, policy, research, or odds source.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Asource
Plain-language user guide
How to use Odds Lab
Compare market-implied probability, KELLY's evidence posture, reality settlement, and calibration without letting public users write ground truth.
Workflow
Use the lab in five moves
- Choose a proof preset that matches the question you care about.
- Ask KELLY inside this lab to get the sector-specific response without leaving the page.
- Inspect the live forecast showcase and proof-route status before trusting the output.
- Open the Glass Lab artifact target to trace source, proof, replay, and settlement evidence.
- Open the full Ask KELLY app only when you want the broader cross-sector conversation.
Artifact spine
The required proof path
Observation
A tagged fact candidate KELLY can inspect without trusting blindly.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Aobservation
Hypothesis
The causal question, bridge, or forecast KELLY wants reality to test.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Ahypothesis
Proof receipt
The evidence packet that explains what KELLY saw and why it moved.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Aproof
Replay
The reconstruction path that proves the chain can be rebuilt later.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Areplay
Settlement
The reality-close record: what happened, when, and from which authority.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Asettlement
Calibration
The score that separates accuracy from confident language.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Acalibration
Memory eligibility
A replay-backed candidate that may influence future KELLY work.
Glass Lab targethttps://glass-lab.up.railway.app?artifact=betting-odds%3Amemory
Proof presets
High-value forecasts this lab is built to inspect
24-hour line movement proof
Which monitored odds line is most likely to move materially before close?
Why this mattersShort-term proof that KELLY can spot source pressure before reality settles.
Reality signalopening line, closing line, injury/news source, final result, calibration
Open proof targetMarket-vs-KELLY divergence
Where does public market belief diverge most from KELLY's evidence chain?
Why this mattersMedium-term proof that KELLY can separate consensus from causal evidence.
Reality signalodds drift, source receipts, KELLY forecast delta, settled outcome
Open proof targetCalibration edge watch
Does KELLY stay better calibrated than market confidence over repeated settlements?
Why this mattersLong-term proof that KELLY improves by tracking reality, not by sounding confident.
Reality signalBrier trend, settlement receipts, replayable calibration trail
Open proof targetSource families
What KELLY watches
- The Odds API
- official league schedules and results
- settlement feeds
- KELLY replay receipts
- calibration history
Proof standard
What makes it trustworthy
- Market odds and KELLY forecast stay separate.
- Every settled outcome needs a source receipt.
- Calibration matters more than confident language.
- Public users inspect and ask; they do not write ground truth.
Boundary
What this is not
This is not betting, gambling, financial, or investment advice. It is a read-only probability and proof interface.
Every displayed forecast must link to Glass Lab or clearly say the artifact is pending.
User controls
Export, delete, location, feedback
Use Causalea Settings for browser-local export/delete, private coarse location, appearance, and feedback. This lab does not store precise coordinates and does not let public users write KELLY Prime.